VANCOUVER ISLAND WINDTALK

nanmoo wrote:I'm renting a smart car and bringing kites only 22-2 or so.

Shark bait!

Ah.. he's just trying to floss his teeth

South swell forecast a week from tomorrow... 22nd.

nanmoo wrote:South swell forecast a week from tomorrow... 22nd.

Forecast to linger to 24th now (earliest I can down there)!

I am a little nervious about all the wind that has passed (down there)

So I took a look at the wind models and at first clance some were starting to send mixed messages to my eye - generally looking good but 'lighter' beyond the 19th which would be OK as long as there is still NW flow.
Lighter wind and south swell might make for a sweet more 'gradual' entry than last years 'baptism by fire'.

Here is what I see (listed from strong to weak):

Still Looking Good
pressure model still looking good into the week of June 22 (if I am reading it right - still find that one a tough read)
WindGuru (GFS) just updated and 'turned on'
iWindsurf lighter (sailable) NW flow
BWD model 1 lighter (sailable) NW flow
WindAlert (Pistol River near shore) not so much
Looking a Little Light

Having now taken a detailed look at what is showing so far, I am starting to think its looking like a 'go' for me on June 23.

Any thoughts from those with more experience with the south coast wind forecast?

I'd say the pressure model is setting up good for next week starting Monday 22. As for the elusive S swell... that's a big maybe.

For What its Worth - I sailed Pistol last week in the 3.7/4.0 conditions and below the rock was awful due to current. However above rock was great and very do-able. Paid great attention to never getting south of rock in impact zone (well, except for the few washings upside down in whitewater.)

Then - more importantly, same conditions up at Cape Sebastian 3.7/4.0 were very nice, but with wicked outside chop. However, quite manageable inside. Waves were smaller though, 3-5', not like during the AWT.

Go and have fun!! I'll be on call to sneak away and hope to get there between work assignments.

From my ultra top secret super accurate private forecasting source.

"Long Term Weather Outlook
Expect drier and more stable weather (along with warming back to seasonably warm temperatures) on the weekend as the upper low exits into Alberta and broad high pressure builds into southern BC. Weak low pressure could trigger daily convective showers in the north under this pattern."

I'd say it's looking good for next week with High Pressure off the coast.

bwd wrote:I'd say the pressure model is setting up good for next week starting Monday 22. As for the elusive S swell... that's a big maybe.

yep, I see better stuff in Pistol but Flo is not looking great, may have to shelve the plan til July

Come on Kus...just invest the extra few hours and head further south. Flo is most of the way there. Or not whatever...one less kook out there...maybe you should stay North now that I think about it. : )-

TheLaw wrote:maybe you should stay North now that I think about it. : )-

guess ur right shouldda gone last 2 weeks

Ok enough sad faces...you can come and be a kook with the rest of us kooks! If we can convince Morewind that he is healed we could even have a beer caddy.

Beer caddy?!? You mean burrito and DQ caddy, we send him in ahead and early to secure the goods.

He could easily handle both tasks Tony. He is an Engineer for heaven's sake!

Swell forecast is a whopping 1-2.5 feet....5-7 seconds....whew, not sure we can handle that Gorging first looks like Miss Doug's, gonna be hotttttt

Might be the right call. Pick up a quick infection in Gorge and head to the coast to let the sand blast it out. Ha!

That south swell to me doesn't look like it will happen...maybe Monday if the predicted 19s happens, but once it starts to drop down I bet you don't see it. Or maybe you will. It seems very mysterious when it does and doesn't show at the Cape. Fingers crossed for June 26th on!