VANCOUVER ISLAND WINDTALK

Randy Kashino is back in the Nitinat Forecasting business. You can find his forecast at http://www.kitesurfer.ca/weather2.htm Showing up is half the battle. Like Dale said, Nitinat sometimes just does its own thing. There have already been lots of classic days. Forest fire hazard is up to high already, don't be too surprised if we get shut down early this year.

Cheers

Thanks Mark..Randy is a guy who knows weather!.....Jim

Nice to see Randy's page back. Antarctic storm swell?? That explains the huge numbers of surf boards headed up island yesterday afternoon. Breaks will be crowded!

I was up at Long Beach last week for a few days, and couldn't believe the number of surfers out., half of em didn't look old enough to drive a car! Luckily I was surf kayaking so they were just speed bumps for me. (Just kidding all you serious surfer dudes out there) No wind and little surf, lots of crab and Coronas. Long Beach is always a good thing.

I just wanted to revive this thread. After 5 days at the Nat and with heavy fogbanks for two days, those two days were not nearly as good as the ones without huge fog visible at the end of the lake.

What gives? It seems sunny skies are the only reliable on-site indicator apart from the forecasted temp differentials between Tofino & Port. I still don't get the "high pressure needs to sit somewhere off the right angle of the Charlottes on Tuesdays with the moon half full with the mosquito gradient declining" kinda advice.

winds in Georgia st. cool the e. island & reduce the thermal effect @Nitinat...Pipers & Oar rd. went off last week..Right Matt?!

Not a bad theory, although that's just a temperature differential issue you are talking about then. It has been cooler last couple of day, not sure about down around Duncan though. Nice 15-18 Soueasterly yesterday for a few hours.

How about developing a mathematical formula with all the variables (temp, fog bank, winds elsewhere, whale farts etc.) and see how close you can get to predicting and postdicting the wind at Nitinat. Keep refining the formula until there is no guessing left to do. For example:

Windspeed = (Temp @ Duncan (x) - Temp @ Tofino (y)) * fog bank density factor * overall pressure slope factor * KUS's jinx factor

Mattdog wrote: KUS's jinx factor

I am the wind dood, people. When I am out rippin' around and the wind for no apparent reason dies or outflow inexplicably starts, it's usually when certain folks that just pulled into the parking lot...3 names typically come to mind but I won't go there.....and, if you recall, all that has to happen is ME driving by for a looksee and flat, boring 8+m waters turn into frothing white squalls, ha
So don't be dissin' me and my positive wind karma I have even managed to overcome Ruskie's curse last year and look, he's got 48 days in because of it

KUS. Didn't you leave on Thursday night? Yesterday, Friday, it was ripping at Nitinat. There was a nice fogbank at the end of the lake and the white caps fired up at 8:30am. At about 2pm for an hour and a half it was full on 4.5 - 5.0 all frothy and big swell. I was on the water from 11am - 7pm. An 8 hour day! Fantastic! Does this mean there IS a KUS jinx (since you wern't there!) or that that the 25¢ slot finally paid out (my 5th trip to Nitinat and I finally got my 5.0 wet).

It's okay Kus, I hear JL has been playing with fans and your voodoo doll