VANCOUVER ISLAND WINDTALK

A couple of bits of info for anyone driving down to Baja:
The directions to the "toll road" to Ensanada at Tijuana border crossing is well marked as there is construction.
Between El Rosario and Catavina there is a 10 k section with major roadworks. Take care. they basically took a bulldozer to the right edge of the road and it is not a clean cut!
Otherwise the road is in great shape. A few "vados" are being worked on south of Santa Rosalia.
martin

Thanks Martin!

How many people in the camp site now? How many in the arroyos?

14 units in the main campground. no one in the free arroyos.
we are all on hurricane watch for "Norbert" 135 kts. yikes!
hopefully, it may just brush us but will see. we are all pulling up tarps de-rigging etc. too bad but that is baja in october!
this may change my road report rather drastically.
checking out places to park the rv away from major water flow if it does hit us. it is expected to come ashore about a hundred miles to the north but these things are hard to predict.

Yes I seem to remember that the campgound is actually an arroyo - although not that obvious - that means if there is a flash-flood after or during the storm and it is large enough it will quickly swamp parts of the campground. Have you been through that scenerio before?

Good luck preparing for the storm!

does that mean "festival camping" when it's over, in other words the guys arriving during the hurricane clear-out might get waterfront spots? That would be a timing thing to consider if you are going down Good luck Martin, hope things don't "brush" you too hard

I overheard something earlier today about a storm strengthening to Category 4 - so that's Norbert and headed your way! Hopefully your camp will be far enough away from the eye.

Thanks for the well wishes guys!
Yes, we are watching "Norbert" on the internet closely.
It has slowed somewhat but is still predicted to make landfall about 100 miles to the north but that contains a large margin of error.
A lot of us have been through flooding in the campsite before so we are scouting out places in the village to go. preferably high ground away from arroyos. Always hopefull for a "near miss"!
Jack and Pam (from Whistler/nitinat) arrived yesterday.
They tell me the road from El Rosario to Catavina that has the construction now has both sides bullldozed off so it is a bit "sketchy"!
Drive safe.
But hey, we have just had 3 days of great kiting in rashys and boardshorts!

WOW! Let's hope the forecasters aren't using the MM5 program!!
Can't wait to join you but it won't be for a while.

Lookout San Carlos !!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00815.html "Hurricane Norbert weakens, then re-strengthens
Hurricane Norbert stalled out yesterday afternoon for several hours, which allowed the storm's churning winds to upwell large amounts of cold water, weakening the storm. Norbert has since resumed its track towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula, and is over warmer waters. Norbert also underwent an eyewall replacement cycle yesterday, which also served to weaken it. In an eyewall replacement cycle, the eyewall collapses, and gets replaced by a new eyewall that was concentric (at a greater diameter) with the old eyewall. These cycles typically take 1-2 days to complete, and the hurricane will remain relatively weak while it struggles to adjust to the new eyewall. The most recent microwave imagery suggests that this process is complete, as there is no trace of the old inner eyewall now. Infrared satellite loops show that the cloud tops of the eyewall clouds have cooled in recent hours, indicating that they are more vigorous and extend higher into the atmosphere. There is excellent upper-level outflow in all quadrants, and wind shear is moderate, near 10-15 knots. Satellite estimates of Norbert's strength indicate the storm has probably intensified into at least a Category 2 hurricane this morning. A Hurricane Hunter mission into Norbert is scheduled for this afternoon, and we will see if this intensification has actually taken place. Yesterday, the Hurricane Hunters found that a layer of stable air near the surface was preventing Norbert's strongest winds at high levels from mixing down to the surface. It still may be the case that Norbert has only Category 1 strength winds at the surface.

The computer models continue to be tightly clustered around a landfall in southwestern Baja near San Carlos, 150 miles north of the southern tip of Baja, on Saturday afternoon. The waters along Norbert's path are unusually warm for this time of year, about 1-3° C above average (Figure 3), and will increase in temperature to 29°C as Norbert approaches Baja. However, these warm waters do not extend very deep, and the total oceanic heat content is low. Once Norbert crosses Baja and enters the Gulf of California, total heat content increases, but Norbert will not be over these warm waters long enough to take advantage of them. Wind shear is expected to increase to a high 20-25 knots tonight. Given these factors, landfall Saturday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane with 100-105 mph winds, as predicted by the GFDL and HWRF models, is a good forecast. The SHIPS models is weaker, putting Norbert at Category 1 strength with 85 mph winds. It is only 10-20% likely that Norbert would be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Tropical storm force winds should extend outwards about 130 miles at landfall, so the southern tip of Baja (San Lucas) will probably see sustained winds of 30-35 mph, should Norbert hit near San Carlos, as predicted. One can look at the forecast radius of tropical storm force winds by clicking on the wundermap for Norbert, then selecting "wind radius" in the check boxes at the bottom of the page.

Crossing rugged Baja will probably knock Norbert down a full Category, by about 20-25 mph. The storm will still pack a solid punch when it makes it second landfall on mainland Mexico north of Los Mochis. Rainfall amounts in mainland Mexico will be 4-8 inches, and 6-10 inches over Baja. Norbert's remains should bring 1-2 inches of rain to portions of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico."

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
Touchdown any time now ... I hope they didn't head North !!! Click on 'Wind Radius' & observe the scale on the right ...

Martin, Rob, Fluffy?? Any damage or floods??

Hi all,

a "near miss"! gotta love a little luck. Norbert passed about 100 miles to the north of us. winds in the camp were only in the 30's and very little rain, so no flooding. we are now busy setting up our campsites again. lots of work but happy to have been let of so easy.
good north wind today El Norte' so 8m time.
martin

Good thing you didn't head N. !!!

Greaat! Time to Relax and sail in the El Norte. Back to the good life in Baja!