nitinat tue-thurs

richi · Post by **richi** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:01 pm

This week will be my only chance to sail nitinat this year. Can anyone tell me what I can expect if it is raining in tofino and sunny/cloudy inland like there forecasting? thanks rich

downwind dave · Post by **downwind dave** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 1:12 pm

its not looking too good, i dont think it would be worth the ferry hassle IMO. my guess is squally winds and showers.

richi · Post by **richi** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 1:21 pm

Thanks Dave

mortontoemike · Post by **mortontoemike** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:03 pm

Richi:

Based on the EC forecast below, I would go to Nitinat for the 3 days. Wednesday in particular could crank with that delta T. It's a bit of a gamble but one that could be well worth it. My 2¢ .

MTM

West Vancouver Island.
Tuesday..Cloudy with sunny periods. 60 percent chance of showers.
High 17.
Wednesday..Showers. Low 12. High 18.
Thursday..Showers. Low 13. High 18.

Inland Vancouver Island.
Tuesday..Cloudy with sunny periods. High 22.
Wednesday..A mix of sun and cloud. Low 11. High 27.
Thursday..A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of showers.
Low 12. High 25.

Bobson · Post by **Bobson** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:54 pm

I'm with MTM. I think Tues, Wed and Thurs will be good, best day being Thursday. I would think you looking at 15-20kts for at least 2-4hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday will be the best day with 20-25kts from 11 till 5pm.......anyone else wanna try out for Jimmy/Randy's job.

Ha! Just kidding Jimmy!

KUS · Post by **KUS** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:23 pm

Rich- the wonderful camping alone is worth it, who cares if you only get a day of wind, enjoy, bring the bikes, fishing rod, frisbee, stamp collection (ha!) etc.

I'm certain you will get at least 6.0 on one day.

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:55 pm

Downwind Dave just wants to have his pick of camping spots

I'm with the others, I think you'll get at least some wind, maybe pretty good. One of my greatest sessions ever was sailing a squall frontal at Nitinat, greyed out to both shores from the middle, nice 18 knots steady to both shores, planing in my own little grey fuzzy globe of a world (noone else ventured out). If its blowing at the Nat today, Port Alberni is only 19 degrees, so a big Delta T ain't absolutely required.

I'm hoping to go out Friday-Monday if the forecast improves - like it just has to, this is the last gasp of real summer.....

edit - it see they have 100% rain in the forecast for Sunday all over the south Island - F*** that!

Oh, hey Joel and Bruno, if you see this save us a bit of room where you're camped!

downwind dave · Post by **downwind dave** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:06 pm

yah I know im considered a bit of a newb with only 14 years of nitinat trips under my waist harness but i still say its not looking good - unless youre into drinking beer under a big blue tarp (not a bad thing)! not worth being @$$ raped by BC ferries anyway.

richi · Post by **richi** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:35 pm

Thanks guys, I think I'll just put up a blue tarp in my livingroom and drink there. Daves right, I'll put the bc ferry money towards a baja trip. good luck on the weather this weekend. richi

mortontoemike · Post by **mortontoemike** » Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:06 pm

Well, you know what they say, opinions are like assholes, everybody has one

It's a close call no doubt about that. The jet stream is to the north but just barely. (http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_pac_loop.gif).
Also, the Western Washington site says" THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT BEFORE A MARINE PUSH BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATE WED AFTERNOON." so Tuesday could be very light.

I figure that if I'm willing to pay Whistler $75/day to ride my snowboard for 6 hours then paying BC Ferries $100 for 3 blissful days, even on an 8.5, is a bargain.

I just wish I could go Tues - Thurs cause I still think it will blow at Nat and the $100 ferry is just the ante, but the salt mine owner has other ideas. Fortunately, it is a living lab so we can all see how it turns out.

Maybe it will be windy in Ditchmond ...

KUS · Post by **KUS** » Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:27 am

Just maybe, eh

I got my kite ready to go AND the bike for Point Bob.

I still think it'll go at the lake, put $$ on it but hey, it'll be light and I don't pay the ferries for that trip

Just remember this tho, you could get hit by that bus tomorrow

and drinking beers in your apartment does not a memory make

mortontoemike · Post by **mortontoemike** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:08 pm

The result?

Tuesday no posts but it was apparently lite but warm and sunny with conditions like Wednesday (below).

Wednesday 14 - 18 kts 6.5 - 7.5 for 3 hours. Sunny and warm.

Thursday 18 - 23 kts ... 5.0 - 5.5 conditions from 11 to 4. Warm and sunny.

KUS · Post by **KUS** » Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:19 pm

And more results.... no wind in Ditchmond

what a surprise

and stood up by my buddy for the MTM ride in Pt Bob, so I got a breath of life vicariously through windlogs and my Windsurf CD in the rig.
Sad existence, whose idea was this gainful employment BS anyway

Ya shouldda gone to the lake, Rich!

mortontoemike · Post by **mortontoemike** » Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:06 am

Wish I could make it to Nitinat this weekend. Sunny weather forecast. Delta T is about 5 degrees for both Sat and Sun. However, the high inland and trof along the coast is forecast to give outflow conditions ("OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL IN THE PLANS AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER WESTERN CANADA. THE THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH STILL SHOWS UP ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT NOW IT LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER FOR SUNDAY.") which might make it blow a little less than if the gradient were onshore. My guess is 6.0 - 7.5 conditions for Saturday and Sunday.

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:54 pm

That was my take for the weekend too MTM. Cam looks like there is wind and whitecaps today; see if anyone logs I guess.

nitinat tue-thurs

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