What's up with the model??

[KUS]

so what's going on, something change

I feel my ability to plan my life has been affected.....and nobody consulted me [smilie=fing09.gif] .......how can this be
how can we have several hours of 25 knots SW at IV but Kook shows 15 at the same time? Why have all the SE's evaporated lately? How does this shifting of 12 hours occur and why everytime I check the model's either updating with N/A's or has totally changed from 2 hours prior will there be another university violence shortly in an oceanography department

WTF is going on.... who am I.... where am I going.... is there life without a decent forecast what's that in the sky

[bwd]

I'm not sure anything has really changed that much with the model. If anything, the long term forecast is a bit better now since it using a 4km resolution for the 3 day model. I've always said that the model tables are just another piece of info and were never meant to replace anything. You still have to use the EC forecast, US forecast and a bit of knowledge too. The model seems to be fairly good at predicting SE's up island (CB) during the year, poor at SE in the south island in fall/spring but okay in winter. For W, it is poor for Cook Street in the summer, fairly good for W at Gordons in the summer. For fall/spring/winter W it is generally good for timing but not for magnitude.

I think when you talk about 'the model' you have to understand that there is the model output from UofW (i.e. maps) and then there is the model tables that I make. The maps give a much better summary of the expected conditions. When I make the tables. they are based on a single point on the maps and give no indication of nearby conditions. They are meant to be used as a quick look/summary. I've tried to make it easy for you to look at the detailed maps - just click on the time on the table (6am, 7am 8am etc). If you look at the maps from tomorrow morning it shows you the big light wind hole around Victoria. Now will this happen? Well according to EC and the US probably not, but we have seen WNW winds do that but since the wind looks more SW tomorrow morning I would not rely on the model, or wait to see the 9/10pm update.



About the timing of the updates. I know many people were confused so that is why I made a summary table showing the status of the model: http://www.bigwavedave.ca/forecasts.php?page=7

"The WRF-GFS model from the University of Washington is run twice a day. The model is started at 5am and 5pm and results start to come in at 9am (and 9pm). Three days of predictions are made. A 12km lower resolution model is run first, followed by a higher 4km resolution version. The first results shown on the tables are from the 12km grid model. The 12km completes by about 9:30am (or 9:30pm). An asterisk (*) is shown beside the times on the tables when the results are from the 12km grid. The 12km results are preliminary and are replaced by the more accurate 4km results. The 4km results start to come in around 10:30am (10:30pm) and the 3 days of predictions are completed by around 1:30pm (or 1:30am). If no asterisk is shown beside the time then the results are from the final 4km grid."

N/A's are shown when the new model comes out around 9am and 9pm. It takes about 30min for the model to come out with the 12km results.

I've tried to make it as easy as I can for people to understand the tables/updates, but I can only do so much

With all that being said...if it's blowing tomorrow morning I'll be at Cook at 8am, anyone else?

[KUS]

Nice, you made it windy for the morning I'll be there the info helps my meteorologically challenged mind.

EDIT: I had no idea about the map links either

[more force 4]

I never knew about the map link, THAT IS SO COOL!! This site never ceases to amaze. That was a very clear description of how the models work and update and how you display the data Dave, your work is much appreciated

[gwydionjhr]

As someone who is new to reading the Predictions, this answer from BWD should probably be pinned.

I was under the impression that if the models are run at 5AM they should be posted shortly afterwards. I didn't realize they took so long to complete and post.