Wind Model Vs EC Vs Reality

[KUS]

Juandesooka: East side wind warriors....any one ever do some historic analysis of model predictions vs actual winds over there? This is 1st year I've been watching and the skunkage potential seems massive. Is this typical or an oddball season? - Friday November 02, 2:14PM
Nanmoo: I would say most of the South Isle windsurfers would expect 1-3 CB skunkages a year where the model let's us down. That number would be less for Kiters I think. I think it's more a case of over the last two years the fall storms have just been weaker and less frequent in general more than the model telling fibs. - Friday November 02, 2:17PM
Juandesooka: With a model that shows hourly wind predictions and real-time wind gauge data .... would be pretty cool to see a graph of real vs predicted winds over time. I know for surfing the rule is "the wave models are big fat liars", but that's just based on anecdotal evidence. ;-) - Friday November 02, 2:43PM
Bwd: Check the Archive http://www.bigwavedave.ca/archive.php, select CB for example, select month, check "Show mm5 model on plot". It gives you some idea of the accuracy, from site to site, year to year.
- Friday November 02, 2:49PM
Juandesooka: You rock Dave....that's exactly what I'm talking about!
- Friday November 02, 3:21PM
Bwd: More info about it here http://www.bigwavedave.ca/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=2209 including a paper written on the subject. - Friday November 02, 3:31PM
- Friday November 03, 3:21PM

[nanmoo]

EC was calling for 30-40 knots SE all throughout JDF and out to Jordan River today, I was there and confirm there was nary more than a breath of wind all day until after sundown. Notably the model was calling for next to nothing out that way.

Pleasant surprise, but what is going on EC?!?!? Down south forecasts seem to just be a crapshoot!

[juandesooka]

I'm fairly new to wind-watching for fun ... but I've spent the last 15 years or so trying to avoid wind, with surfing and, in particular, fishing.

Over the years, I have found EC so useless for JDF wind that I virtually never even check it. If you believe their perpetual gale warning, you'd never go fishing, and you'd get a lot of wind-chasing skunkage. I find the US NOAA report for JDF Central Strait is pretty decent ... though I think there is still quite a bit of crap shooting for winter winds. Which is too bad for me, because I need to finagle and scheme to be able to chase it, especially with these short days ... so a little bit of warning with some degree of certainty goes a long way!

[SaltSpringKiterPeaceGuy]

i like the sudden burst of wind tomorrow afternoon on cook street! 7m again? yes!

[JL]

Night winds is another nasty factor.

[Nimpkish-Bill]

Being a fairly new wind addict to the Vict scene, its a stretch to say that winter storms are on the decline but thats what I see more and more of. It does appear as though climate is boucing to extremes around the world, no more status quo. Maybe as the islands climate warms our weather will be buffered by the ocean. Milder, wetter and cloudy days with no %^$*^%$ wind... glad I;m headed south, although Baja has all but lost its El Norte too

[JL]

Winter is still a ways away Dec. 21

[juandesooka]

So...an interesting day to test 2nd prediction model against the first. Model 1 calling 20kt at iv. New Model less than 10 all day. Which will win out?

[abetanzo]

I believe!!! waiting for 9am updates then heading out on a kite or with the sailboat!!

[JL]

Good attitude Windy in the Willows cam.


1 p.m. Env. Canada (prediction #2) had it right today unfortunately