El Nino / La nina / Neutral

[JL]

ENSO-neutral is favored for the Northern Hemisphere spring 2020 (~65% chance), continuing through summer 2020 (~55% chance). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... odisc.html

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... odisc.html

[JL]

There is a ~65% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with chances decreasing through the autumn (to 45-50%). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... odisc.html

[tempy]

Jim, can you give us the idiot's guide to what that likely means for us windwise?

My googling turned up this, but it is not necessarily that relevant:

http://www.ocgy.ubc.ca/projects/clim.pr ... anada.html

And this one is just too long:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... an_climate

I am sure you have explained it before, and, if so, just guide me to the post.

Cheers, and thanks for the updates.

[JL]

"El-Neutral" The jet stream affects us as per normal = No change to a normal weather pattern.

[JL]

<b>There is a ~60% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with roughly equal chances (~40-50%) of La Niña or ENSO-neutral during the autumn and winter 2020-21.</b><br> During May 2020, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near-to-below average across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. All of the Niño indices decreased during the month, and the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.4°C [Fig. 2]. Equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased further during the first half of the month, but rebounded slightly toward the end of the month [Fig. 3]. However, below-average subsurface temperatures prevailed east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central Pacific. Tropical convection departures were weak, but were enhanced near Indonesia and suppressed over the Date Line and west-central Pacific [Fig. 5]. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The forecaster consensus also favors ENSO-neutral during the summer, but then chances become roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral beginning with the August-October season. That consensus mostly reflects the dynamical model guidance, which leans toward La Niña, along with ocean conditions that are somewhat favorable for the development of La Niña. However, enough uncertainty remains that the chance of La Niña remains lower than 50%, and it is unclear whether oceanic and atmospheric anomalies will lock in and persist. In summary, there is a ~60% chance of ENSO-neutral during Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with roughly equal chances of La Niña or ENSO-neutral (~40-50%) during the autumn and winter 2020-21 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

Here you go Tempy: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/ ... r-and.html

[Teabag]

Tempy, I was bored sometimes in 2013 and also wanted to figure out, what does it means for Van Island in regard to chance of wind if we under La Nina / El Nino, or neutral.

So double checked the history of 8 years (2004-2012) on which months were La Nina: Red , El Nino: Blue and Neutral: Black. (It does not take too long to do this on an excel sheet).

But needed to be compared with something, so I choose the laziest path: The session logs ... (which is far from giving an accurate results since not everyone logged their sessions, or all of their sessions, and lots of them might be a CB, Nitinat, Comox, Cook st...etc...).

But anyway overall what it showed is that there is not much difference between each, more data needed. But what could be interpreted is this:


Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar: You want El Nino or neutral, you definitively dont want La Nina!!!

Apr/May: It is almost always neutral or rarely El Nino. No idea what La Nina would give since it never happenned between 04-12.


June/July: Not enough data, but looks so far La Nina better.

Aug: Not enough data, La nina could be better, but could be worse.

Sep/Oct/Nov: Not enough data, but overall looks like La Nina better.

Not much difference in all.

[Teabag]

Hopefully will get out of my lazy ass and stop reading into SJW stuff/cancel culture things and redo a database on El Nino/La Nina and Neutral from 2004 to 2020 instead. (Pretty sure can do this first part in 2-3hours max)

*** For Nitinaht Lake I would compare vs session logs June/July/Aug of each years ***
Nitinaht Lake location would be the quickest to do and would be quite accurate actually since there are so many logs everyday. Obviously would filter out the wind exaggeration logs and use the proper ones.

So that would be sweet to have a strong database/history for the Lake 2004-2019.


The longest part would be to compare it VS 2004-2020 ARCHIVE WIND data on cook st/Columbia Beach/Gordons Beach for example.

There is a wind archive option on this website, unfortunately it is just a graph showing an entire month, so it is extremely hard to see if it was night wind or day wind, actually almost impossible.

- If BWD/Admin have access to these historical wind data graph, but in text format (wind strength/time table) for these stations: Odgen Point/Gordons/CB, I would gladly spend time checking that data and put them vs some graph in regard to El Nino/La Nina/Neutral, while also double check with session logs to, to eliminate these "bubbles day.

Let me know if there is an historical database of these stations in text files (as oppose to graph). Wind strength readings vs time, and any other available data, air temperature if available, pressure, etc... That would be jackpot!!!!

We could have 14 years data analysis for some van island locations, with or without El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, etc... would be great to have.
Basically a very simple, easy to read simple graph 14 years database for each locations. (With different quick sub graph, mentioning # days between this and this wind strength, etc..)

If these text files exist and can be access, please let me know!!!

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml La-Nina on it's way.

[JL]

75% La Nina predicted: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[JL]

~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50 chance of Neutral during April-June.) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml