El Nino / La nina / Neutral

nanmoo · Post by **nanmoo** » Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:24 pm

The main theme being that for all of us involved in weather monitoring/predicting/reporting is it's a complete crapshoot out past a few days and your best bet is made on the medium scale trend; ie. gradual warming over time +\- variations. Personally I ignore all the short term hokus pokus predictions and modelling and focus on Macro trends. There's two elements to consider for snow, precipitation and temperature. The prior is nearly impossible to predict in advance and last season was garbage not because a lack of precipitation but because of high temperatures. Since Coastal snow typically accumulates near 0C (especially heavy snowfall) a small temperature uptick can be the difference between skiing or surfing that winter. For the rest of the Province the temperature difference effect on snowfall accumulations is still pretty nominal because most snowfall occurs well below freezing. So last year was pretty average for the northern half of the Province but low in the Okanagan because a lack of rain.

But I digress, for KC and Baker my bet is the same trend continuing, you might get a better season than last but the glory days on the coast are likely over.

AC · Post by AC » Sun Sep 06, 2015 5:33 pm

So here's the thing…
* Global average temperatures are now 1C+ above pre-Industrial (1750) levels.
* The temperature increases already 'baked into' the atmosphere (via current CO2 levels of 400+ PPM, as compared with the pre-Industrial 260 PPM) are well over the 2C limit set by the IPPC.
* The 2C limit itself is a political, not scientific, number, and puts us on track for potentially catastrophic changes.
* Major scientific institutions are predicting a 4-6C global temperature rise this century.
* These predictions (which themselves have continued to steadily rise over the years for multiple reasons) tend to be conservative, as most modeling does not adequately account for feedbacks.

JL · Post by JL » Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:26 pm

Enjoy this warm period

Cool weather ahead: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science ... 72160b.jpg[/img]

The link above now includes a video on climate change: "CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article inaccurately stated that scientists have predicted bitterly cold winters in the 2030s, "similar to freezing conditions of the late 17th century". In fact, the research focused solely on solar activity, and did not made any prediction about its possible future climate effects. We are happy to make this clear."

JL · Post by JL » Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:22 am

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ndex.shtml

thankgodiatepastafobreaky · Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:16 am

Godzilla births Patricia!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0833.shtml
and then the sensational verson:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/americas/ ... -patricia/

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:18 pm

I thought the cnn was pretty straight forward with almost all the info was from the NOAA release. Glad it missed the Baja!!

JL · Post by JL » Thu Dec 10, 2015 1:12 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

JL · Post by JL » Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:49 am

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

JL · Post by JL » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:33 am

Neutral late Summer with possible La Nina to come: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -cpc_plume

JL · Post by JL » Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:03 am

Neutral by Early Summer / 50% chance of La Nina this Fall: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

KUS · Post by **KUS** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:23 am

Since you have read these diatribes on these links, how about a reader's digest version of how this will impact our sailing? Pls and thank you's JL weather dood

all I know weird stuff is happening and it's also raining a LOT

rvanderbyl · Post by **rvanderbyl** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:30 am

Yes Good point Kus. I gave up checking these links a long time ago. Too much reading added to what I already waste time reading. Maybe just narrow it down to what it means for the next 6-8 months please JL.

JL · Post by JL » Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:29 pm

If I knew what was coming I wouldn't be wasting my time passing on the info.

No one says you need to read this

nanmoo · Post by **nanmoo** » Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:17 pm

Although they didn't explicitly state it, I think Ray and Kus were offering you $80/hr for your interpretation and summary of the information contained in those links. Billable twice monthly.

rvanderbyl · Post by **rvanderbyl** » Fri Mar 11, 2016 5:13 pm

Well Don't bother then. I thought that maybe JL or some one else could sum it up with a few words like "wow we're gonna get a lot more NW wind in Georgia strait this summer" after they read the current posts.
Would be interesting to know just how many people actually do read this stuff. If it's just one or two people then JL really doesn't have to bother posting.

El Nino / La nina / Neutral

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