El Nino / La nina / Neutral
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JL
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"La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring." http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
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- enso graph.JPG (56.14 KiB) Viewed 6803 times
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- enso probabilities.JPG (39.31 KiB) Viewed 6801 times
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- typical.JPG (83.25 KiB) Viewed 6798 times
Thermals are good.
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JL
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml ... NEUTRAL MOST LIKELY THROUGH AUGUST 
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Thermals are good.
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JL
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.
Thermals are good.
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JL
- Posts: 2610
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml It looks like a 60+ % chance of an El Nino winter.
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Thermals are good.
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JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
- Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml There is ~60% chance of El Niño in the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to ~70% during winter 2018-19.
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- Capture.JPG (67.74 KiB) Viewed 6223 times
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- typical_156.jpg (83.25 KiB) Viewed 6215 times
Thermals are good.
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JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
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There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to 65-70% during winter 2018-19. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.php
Thermals are good.
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JL
- Posts: 2610
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"El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance)." http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
Thermals are good.
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JL
- Posts: 2610
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80% chance of El-Nino this Winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml http://bigwavedave.ca/phpBB2/files/typical_156_715.jpg
Thermals are good.
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thankgodiatepastafobreaky
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JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
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Cliff Mass has some input: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/e ... ening.html "Regarding our winter weather, the correlation of El Nino with NW weather is very weak before January 1, so anything goes for the next two months. But if the forecasts are correct and at least a moderate El Nino is in place, expect warmer than normal winter temperatures, lower mountain snowpack than normal and a lowered probability of lowland snow after the new year. C.M."
"Regarding our winter weather, the correlation of El Nino with NW weather is very weak before January 1, so anything goes for the next two months. But if the forecasts are correct and at least a moderate El Nino is in place, expect warmer than normal winter temperatures, lower mountain snowpack than normal and a lowered probability of lowland snow after the new year. C.M."Thermals are good.
